Bullshit Meter
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Field guide

Ten pitch red flags a skeptic checks first

A pitch red flag is a claim pattern that signals the story has outrun the evidence. None of the ten below means an idea is bad; each means a specific kind of proof is missing, and every experienced reader (investor, customer, auditor) pattern-matches them within seconds.

We built the audit pipeline behind Bullshit Meter in 2026 around these exact patterns, and we ran it on our own pitch before charging anyone. We are not exempt: the meter caught our category-story flag, scored us 41 out of 100, and stamped the report FIX THIS SHIT FIRST.

Key takeaways

01

Market size doing the work of product evidence

A $400B TAM slide says nothing about whether anyone wants this product. Skeptics read a big market number placed early as a substitute for traction, because it usually is.

The fix: Lead with the sharpest evidence you have that specific people want this specific thing. Size the market after the problem is believed.

02

"We have no competitors"

Either the market has no money in it, or you have not looked. Both are worse than having competitors, and every skeptic knows the third option: the competitor is a spreadsheet, a phone call, or doing nothing.

The fix: Name the status quo as your real competitor and explain why people will switch from it. Switching stories are believable; empty-field stories are not.

03

A comparison table you win in every row

Nobody wins every row. A clean sweep tells the reader you chose the rows, which un-persuades them of the rows you actually deserve to win.

The fix: Include the rows you lose and say why they matter less for your segment. One honest loss buys credibility for every claimed win.

04

Vanity numbers presented as traction

Signups, waitlists, and page views measure curiosity, not value. A skeptic immediately asks what fraction came back last week, and the pitch that omits retention has usually looked at it.

The fix: Report the number that would scare you: active use, retention, paid conversion. Small and real beats large and hollow.

05

"AI-powered" as the moat

Model access is rented, not owned; whatever a model does for you, it does for the next founder with the same API key. Calling it the moat signals there is no other one.

The fix: State what compounds in your favor: proprietary data, distribution, workflow lock-in, accumulated evaluations. AI is an ingredient, not a defense.

06

A hockey stick with no denominator

Growth percentages without absolute numbers mean the absolute numbers are unimpressive. Every skeptic performs the same reflex: 300% of what?

The fix: Show the axis. If the base is small, say it plainly and show the mechanism you believe scales it; the mechanism is more persuasive than the disguise.

07

Praise with no names attached

"Users love it" and quote cards with initials read as friends and family. Attribution is the difference between a testimonial and a rumor.

The fix: Use full names, roles, and companies with permission, or describe observed behavior instead: what they did, not what they said.

08

Roadmap written in the present tense

When the demo shows three features and the pitch claims ten, an auditor stops trusting all ten. The gap between artifact and description is measurable, and it is the fastest credibility leak there is.

The fix: Describe what exists in the present tense and what is planned with dates. The honesty costs one slide and buys the rest of the deck.

09

"We only need 1% of the market"

The 1% framing sounds conservative and is actually the opposite: it assumes reaching 1% is easy precisely because the market is huge. Skeptics read it as an admission that you have no distribution plan.

The fix: Replace it with the first hundred customers: who they are, where they gather, what it costs to reach one. A believable 100 beats an arbitrary 1%.

10

Claims that cannot be proven wrong

"Revolutionary", "seamless", "the future of X": a claim with no possible counter-evidence is not a claim, it is a mood. Auditors mark them unverifiable and discount the surrounding sentences too.

The fix: Convert each one into something falsifiable: a number, a comparison, a demo. If nothing could disprove the sentence, delete it.

The uncomfortable part

You cannot reliably find these in your own pitch, for the same reason you cannot proofread your own typos: you read what you meant, not what you wrote. (Rob Fitzpatrick's The Mom Test is the classic treatment of why feedback from people who like you is worthless.) Hand the deck to someone with no stake in your feelings, or run the free Sniff Test and get your claim ledger extracted in a few minutes.

Check my pitch for thesePrevious: validate the idea itself